Data to Decisions: Analyzing Vermont’s Child Care Supply-Demand Gap

Supply demand gap analyses are a critical tool for understanding the availability of child care relative to the needs of families and employers in a given community. At their core, these analyses estimate how many child care seats are available, how many children are likely to need care, and where gaps exist. But the value of this type of analysis depends not only on the data itself, but on how well it reflects local context and responds to the questions decisionmakers are trying to answer.

First Children’s Finance (FCF) recently completed a supply demand gap analysis in Vermont that illustrates the importance of pairing rigorous data methods with deep local expertise. Using Vermont birth records and child care licensing information, FCF created a detailed map of child care supply and the estimated number of children likely to need access to full-time care. This data allowed us to develop statewide, county, and metropolitan-level views of child care supply and demand.

Just as importantly, the analysis was shaped by Vermont partners’ knowledge of the local early childhood and workforce landscape. In collaboration with internal and external partners, FCF conducted targeted analyses of areas with a high concentration of employers. This partnership ensured that the analyses did not simply describe where gaps exist, but helped answer the specific questions Vermont leaders and stakeholders were grappling with about access, affordability, and system performance.

Conducting supply demand gap analyses on a regular basis is essential for understanding how child care systems evolve over time and how public investments are affecting access. Repeated analyses allow policymakers, workforce development councils, and elected officials to track trends, to assess whether investments are alleviating pressure points, and identify persistent barriers that require new approaches. Equally important, these analyses often surface more nuanced questions about supply and demand, prompting deeper inquiry rather than one-size-fits-all solutions.

“Understanding where families need child care will inform future investments – that’s why I’m so proud of the county and municipal-level analysis we were able to do this year,” shared Erin Roche, Vermont Director for First Children’s Finance.

In Vermont, this analysis led directly to the development of a set of supplemental briefs designed to respond to questions raised by state leads and partners. These materials allowed FCF and Vermont stakeholders to take a closer look at aspects of the child care system that are often obscured in high-level analyses.

One brief examined the characteristics of preschool capacity across the state, highlighting preschool and UPK partner programs and how these programs intersect with local preschool populations. A second brief focused on estimating supply and demand for the school-age, after-school population, an area of importance for working families and employers. A third explored the role of part-time child care in Vermont, providing a detailed look at how part-time offerings contribute to overall system capacity.

Together, the SDG analysis and supplemental briefs revealed several important dynamics. For example, while some regions demonstrated an increase in capacity to meet local need, areas of growth remain – particularly for full-time preschool capacity and infant care.

The analysis also showed that many programs operating close to full-time capacity may be helping relieve system-wide pressure, but that this effect varies considerably by geography. In addition, the data highlighted the critical role of Vermont’s mixed-delivery system in providing universal prekindergarten (UPK) within full-time child care settings.

These insights underscore why understanding local context matters. Child care markets are inherently local, shaped by geography, employer needs, program operating models, and family preferences. Vermont’s SDG work provides a foundation for smarter, more targeted investments, helping leaders align resources with actual community needs and supporting data-driven decisions that strengthen child care systems statewide.

Want to Know More?

If your state, county, or region has questions about child care supply and demand, First Children’s Finance might be able to help. We’d love to connect. Please email infonational@firstchildrensfinance.org.

Reports

You can read the 2026 report HERE.

For an additional analysis of preschool capacity, click here.

For an additional analysis of afterschool care, click here.

For an additional analysis of part-time programs, click here.